Biochemical screening for chromosomal disorders and neural tube defects (NTD): is adjustment of maternal alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) still appropriate in insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM)?

Maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) has been reported to be decreased in insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM). The objective of the present study was to reinvestigate this finding in detail. Maternal serum levels of AFP, human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG), and unconjugated estriol (uE3) in 114 diabetic women, of whom 84 had IDDM, were compared to those of 19,251 control pregnancies in the second trimester (15th to 20th gestational weeks). The mean body weight at the date of sampling was 73.7 kg in all diabetic women, 72.7 kg in women with IDDM and 68.3 kg in non-diabetic women, respectively. Body weights were significantly (p<0.001) elevated in all diabetic pregnancies. Using weight-adjusted MoM (multiple of the median) values no statistical difference of serum levels in diabetic and non-diabetic pregnant women was found. Median MoM levels were 1.01 (hCG), 1.01 (uE3), 1.06 (AFP) in all diabetic women, and 0.95 (hCG), 0.96 (uE3), 0.96 (AFP) in women with IDDM, respectively. Ignoring adjustment for maternal weight leads to a reduction of all serum parameters in diabetic pregnancies. However, median MoM values of all three analytes are not statistically different when compared to non-diabetic pregnancies. This finding is contrary to the results of former studies from the 1970s and 1980s. It is concluded that progress in insulin adjustment and blood glucose surveillance of diabetic patients on the whole has balanced out serum levels. Therefore adjustment of serum AFP values for diabetic status no longer seems reasonable. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Screening for trisomy 21 in twin pregnancies in the first trimester: does chorionicity impact on maternal serum free β-hCG or PAPP-A levels?

In a study of 180 twin pregnancies I have examined the distribution of maternal serum free β-human chorionic gonadotrophin (β-hCG) and pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A), in addition to fetal nuchal translucency thickness (NT), in twins classified as monochorionic or dichorionic, based on ultrasound appearance at 10–14 weeks of gestation. In 45 monochorionic and 135 dichorionic twin pregnancies the median MoM free β-hCG was not significantly different (1.00 vs 1.01), whilst that for PAPP-A was lower (0.89 vs 1.01) but again with no statistical significance. Previous reports of an increased fetal NT in monochorionic twins pregnancies could not be confirmed (1.03 vs 1.00). It is concluded that the existing pseudo risk twin correction algorithm is appropriate for both monochorionic and dichorionic twins in providing accurate first trimester risks for trisomy 21. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

THE APPLICATION OF RIDGE REGRESSION ANALYSIS TO A HYDROLOGIC TARGET-CONTROL MODEL1

ABSTRACT: Ridge regression analysis is used to investigate the stability of regression estimates over twenty-three years of data in a target-control model. Two target stations in the Wind River Range in Wyoming are studied using two sets of control variables. The predictive ability of ridge regression analysis is compared to that of ordinary regression analysis. The results of this study indicate improved stability of the estimates of ridge regression over ordinary regression. The predictive ability of the ridge regression estimates is as good or better than regression estimates.     

Second trimester maternal serum analytes in triploid pregnancies: correlation with phenotype and sex chromosome complement

Second trimester maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MS-AFP), human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG), unconjugated estiol (uE3), and inhibin-A (INH-A) levels were evaluated in pregnancies complicated by triploidy. In addition to seven new triploid pregnancies, the results for 67 published cases were reviewed. All cases appear to fall into two major groups. First, those identifiable as screen-positive for both Down syndrome and an open neural tube defect (ONTD) with elevated MS-AFP, grossly elevated hCG, low/normal uE3, and probably elevated INH-A. Pregnancies in the second group are identifiable as screen-positive for trisomy 18 with low/normal MS-AFP, and very low hCG, uE3 and INH-A. Triploid pregnancies with high maternal serum hCG nearly always show a placenta with partial mole (25/27 or 93%), a high frequency of ONTDs or ventral wall defects (VWDs) (8/28 or 29%) and have either an XXX or XXY karyotype (observed ratio 6:10, respectively). Low hCG is infrequently associated with a molar placenta (1/11 or 9%), does not appear to be associated with ONTDs or VWDs (0/29 or 0%), and shows an excess of XXX over XXY karyotypes (observed ratio 17:2). There were 16 cases with either a molar placenta, an ONTD or a VWD that received the MS-AFP and hCG tests. All 16 were screen-positive for an ONTD (MS-AFP≥2 multiples of the median). In addition, all 31 cases that received MS-AFP, hCG, uE3 (and where available INH-A) were screen-positive for either Down syndrome or trisomy 18. The findings are discussed in the context of expected differences between digynic and diandric triploidy. It is suggested that the sex chromosome complement in triploidy is an important factor in determining risk for partial mole development and in utero survival. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

First trimester PAPP-A in the detection of non-Down syndrome aneuploidy

Combined first trimester screening using pregnancy associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A), free β-human chorionic gonadotrophin, and nuchal translucency (NT), is currently accepted as probably the best combination for the detection of Down syndrome (DS). Current first trimester algorithms provide computed risks only for DS. However, low PAPP-A is also associated with other chromosome anomalies such as trisomy 13, 18, and sex chromosome aneuploidy. Thus, using currently available algorithms, some chromosome anomalies may not be detected. The purpose of the present study was to establish a low-end cut-off value for PAPP-A that would increase the detection rates for non-DS chromosome anomalies. The study included 1408 patients who underwent combined first trimester screening. To determine a low-end cut-off value for PAPP-A, a Receiver–Operator Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed. In the entire study group there were 18 cases of chromosome anomalies (trisomy 21, 13, 18, sex chromosome anomalies), 14 of which were among screen-positive patients, a detection rate of 77.7% for all chromosome anomalies (95% CI: 55.7–99.7%). ROC curve analysis detected a statistically significant cut-off for PAPP-A at 0.25 MoM. If the definition of screen-positive were to also include patients with PAPP-A<0.25 MoM, the detection rate would increase to 88.8% for all chromosome anomalies (95% CI: 71.6–106%). This low cut-off value may be used until specific algorithms are implemented for non-Down syndrome aneuploidy. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Maternal serum levels of total activin-A in first-trimester trisomy 21 pregnancies

Maternal serum total activin-A concentration was measured in 45 pregnancies affected by trisomy 21 and 493 control unaffected pregnancies at 10–14 weeks of gestation. In the trisomy 21 pregnancies total activin-A concentration was significantly higher (1.36 MoM of the unaffected pregnancies) and in 16% of cases the level was above the 95th centile of normal. The log₁₀ SD for the control group and the trisomy 21 group were 0.17 and 0.22, respectively. The median pregnancy associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) in this trisomy 21 series was 0.49 and for free β-hCG was 2.05. In the trisomy group there were significant positive associations between total activin-A and PAPP-A (0.6071) and free β-hCG (0.4255). The low median difference and the high overlap in values between trisomic and unaffected pregnancies make total activin-A of little practical use in first-trimester screening for trisomy 21. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Prenatal diagnosis: does it alter outcome?

The prenatal detection of urinary tract anomalies is changing paediatric practice but in many areas the impact on clinical outcome remains difficult to quantify. However it is already apparent that termination of pregnancy has reduced the numbers of infants with lethal pulmonary hypoplasia and renal dsyplasia who would previously have been liveborn but destined to succumb as neonates. Similarly, referrals of major non lethal abnormalities such as bladder exstrophy are declining as parents increasingly opt for termination. Fetuses at greatest risk of early onset postnatal renal failure can now be identified with considerable accuracy on prenatal ultrasound. Termination, prompted by quality of life considerations, could result in reduced numbers of infants and young children requiring end stage renal failure treatment in the first few years of life. Pre natal detection of anomalies such as PUJ obstruction and reflux undoubtedly provides an opportunity to avert functional deterioration and minimise urinary infection. But the proportion of children who genuinely benefit has proved difficult to assess. The prenatal detection of mild dilatation is of doubtful benefit in all but a minority of cases. Clinically significant underlying pathology is rare yet this common prenatal finding often generates disproportionate parental anxiety. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Antenatal gene tests in low-risk pregnancies: molecular screening for aspartylglucosaminuria (AGU) and infantile neuronal ceroid lipofuscinosis (INCL) in Finland

Approximately one in five subjects in Finland carries some gene defect associated with 30 diseases belonging to the Finnish disease heritage, and about one in 500 children born is affected. Almost all carriers, women and men, are unaware of their condition. Recent advances in molecular medicine have offered the possibility of population-based carrier screening for recessive disorders. We studied acceptance and attitudes to antenatal screening for aspartylglucosaminuria (AGU) and infantile neuronal ceroid lipofuscinosis (INCL). From January 1995 until December 1996 carrier tests were offered at Kuopio City Health Center, free of charge to all pregnant women attending maternity care units. Women found to be carriers of AGU (n=47) or INCL (n=14) underwent detailed genetic counseling, and their male partners were also offered the test. If both partners appeared to be carriers we offered prenatal testing (n=1). No affected fetuses were detected. Attitudes towards the gene test were elicited by means of a questionnaire. Altogether 87% of pregnant women elected to undertake the gene tests. Antenatal screening for gene defects was feasible and well accepted, and it provided an effective way to find carriers of genetic diseases and to incorporate prenatal testing into this process. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.